U.S. stock-market futures on Tuesday evening were flipping between gains to losses after a big rally in the regular session and as the votes of hundreds of millions of Americans were being tallied in the crucial election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Stock investors are betting that a decisive win by Biden, who has been leading in most national polls, could lead to greater fiscal aid for out-of-work Americans and businesses devastated by the worst pandemic in more than 100 years.
But that hoped-for fiscal aid is likely to come only if Democrats also carve out a majority in the Senate and maintain control of their majority in the House, market experts said.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average
YMZ20,
YM00,
were off 55 points, or 0.2%, at 27,321, those for the S&P 500 index
ESZ20,
ES00,
were trading 1.60 point, or less than 0.1%, lower at 3,360, while Nasdaq-100 futures
NQ00,
NQZ20,
gained 39.50 points, or 0.3%, at 11,299. All three futures indexes were off their best levels of the thinly traded futures Tuesday evening.
An average of national polls from FiveThirtyEight had Biden ahead by 8.4 percentage points on Election Day.
On Tuesday, the stock market closed sharply higher, with the Dow industrials
DJIA,
rallying 554.98 points, or 2.1%, to 27480.03, its biggest one-day point and percentage gain since July 14. The S&P 500
SPX,
rose 58.92 points, or 1.8%, to 3,369.16. The Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
rose 202.96 points, or 1.9%, to 11,160.57.
So far, battleground states, including Ohio, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan were too early to call.
Checkout: A live blog from Barron’s Group on Election Day
It is unclear however, given the size and scope of mail-in votes this year due to the pandemic, that a presidential victor can easily be determined on Election Day or the day after.
